Stunning New Poll Shows Trump Widening Lead Among Arab Americans

A new poll shows Donald Trump with a small lead over Kamala Harris among Arab American voters.

Arab News and YouGov’s poll showed 45 percent of respondents support Donald Trump as opposed to 43 percent for Kamala Harris. Four percent said they would vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 6 percent said they were undecided, and 2 percent declined to answer. The new poll has a larger gap than another survey from the Arab American Institute earlier this month, which gave Trump a 42 to 41 percent advantage.

Arab Americans make up a substantive population in Michigan, with more than 300,000 of the state’s residents claiming to have Middle Eastern or North African ancestry. In 2020, the community played a substantial role in delivering Michigan to Joe Biden, who won the state by 154,000 votes. In more bad news for Harris, 39 percent of respondents in the poll said they think a Trump administration would be most likely to solve the Israel-Palestine conflict, as opposed to 33 percent for Harris and 8 percent for Stein.

About 46 percent of respondents said that racism and hate crimes against Arab Americans were more likely to go up if Trump was elected in November. But the fact that Trump is still leading despite this should be cause for alarm in the Harris campaign. Instead, Harris has been campaigning in Michigan with former Representative Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.

This has not gone over well in Michigan, as the state’s large Arab American population also consists of over 90,000 Iraqi Americans who remember not only the elder Cheney’s support for the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 but also his daughter’s reputation for supporting torture and anti-Muslim bigotry. Trump quickly seized on Cheney supporting Harris, posting on Truth Social Tuesday that “if Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames.”

Michigan also boasts large Palestinian and Lebanese communities. Palestine and Lebanon are currently experiencing a brutal Israeli bombing campaign as the Biden administration continues to make no progress on a cease-fire or arms embargo. Harris didn’t do herself any favors when she said that “the first and most tragic story is October 7, and what happened that day, and then what has happened since,” seeming to diminish the massive civilian deaths in Gaza and Lebanon.

More than one month ago, the Democrats held their national convention and neglected to highlight any Palestinian, Arab, or Muslim voices on the stage. It appears that the Harris campaign is continuing on the same path as Biden, and it could cost her a critical battleground state.

Results from a “shock” poll shared by one of Donald Trump’s surrogates started trending on X Monday, telling 1.4 million people that the Republican presidential nominee was gaining ground on Vice President Kamala Harris in New Mexico. 

But none of it appears to be real.

MAGA ally Richard Grennell, who served as the acting director of national intelligence during Trump’s administration, posted the sourceless numbers to his X account, claiming that Harris only had a three-point lead on the former president in the battleground state. But that alleged narrow lead made light of other recent surveys, including one published in the Albuquerque Journal on Monday, which showed Harris with a  nine-point lead, three times more than Grennell suggested.

“Trump surrogates are literally fabricating polls at this point to make their supporters think a victory is inevitable,” wrote Democratic strategist and pollster Matt McDermott in response to Grennell’s post. “No poll shows this in New Mexico.”

Doubts were similarly cast over Harris’s odds on the betting platform Polymarket, which saw Trump suddenly surge ahead of the Democratic presidential nominee with 63 percent of the projected vote compared to Harris’s 36 percent.

One bettor appeared to be behind the switch-up. “Fredi9999” holds more than $20 million in pro-Trump bets on the site, and users have suggested that the same person could be behind several accounts with some of the site’s largest bets on the Republican presidential nominee, reported CCN.

Donald Trump, who recently led a monthslong smear campaign against the judge overseeing his hush-money trial, the judge’s daughter, and all of his employees, now has a serious problem with people complaining about judges.  

During a speech at the 11th Hour Faith Leaders Meeting in Concord, North Carolina, Monday, the former president took issue with people criticizing judges who appear to like him.

“I actually think it’s illegal what they do,” Trump said, before going on a long tangent about basketball coach Bobby Knight. When Trump finally returned to his point, he explained his plot to limit free speech.

“They play the ref, they start screaming about ‘The judge is no good,’ and ‘This one’s no good,’ and ‘They’re slow’ and ‘They’re lousy judges’ and ‘The judge should be impeached,’ and all of this crap, when you have a brilliant judge that’s doing the right thing,” Trump said.

The Republican presidential nominee is evidently still touchy about Judge Aileen Cannon, whose bias in favor of Trump was apparent throughout the proceedings of his classified documents case. Her unprecedented decision to toss out the felony case by ruling special counsel Jack Smith’s appointment unconstitutional has been criticized by legal scholars. 

“And some people will fold a little bit, they’ll say, ‘Hey, I’ll get them off my back, let me just give a bad ruling here or there,’ and some will do that actually but, uh fortunately, most have courage and they understand,” Trump said, suggesting that some judges bend to pressure. 

“I really believe it’s illegal what they do, and I know there’s some great lawyers in there who are gonna look at it, because what they do is so obvious, what they’ve done to the Supreme Court, even with the protection of their houses, you’re not supposed to be allowed to march in front. They didn’t stop it,” he continued. 

Trump asserted that judges would “give a bad ruling” to silence critics, and specifically mentioned the Supreme Court, which he packed with conservative justices, who tossed him a blanket presidential immunity for official acts and, on Monday, denied a bid from his former lawyer Michael Cohen, who claims Trump and other officials had him placed in solitary confinement as punishment for his tell-all book.

Trump clearly believes a “bad ruling” is any one that does not favor him. Just months ago, Trump went on several tirades against New York state Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, his family, and his staff, leading a slew of threats against him that resulted in a gag order being placed on the former president. 

Speaking to the room full of Christian voters, Trump promised that he would continue to install conservative judges to protect their interests. 

“I will once again appoint rock solid pro-constitutional judges to faithfully interpret the law and the Constitution; the 300 judges that we appointed changed the whole …” Trump trailed off, shaking his head. “I mean, it was so bad, it was so bad.”

Trump’s slate of 234 conservative judges are some of the most influential in the country, and have already sowed chaos. Take, for instance, Texas Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, the only federal judge in Amarillo, Texas. Kacsmaryk was responsible for a ruling that threatened mifepristone access nationwide. Now conservatives are going out of their way to file their suits in his district. 

When Donald Trump says “Make America Great Again,” he has a specific ideal year in mind: 1798, when slavery was legal and America carried out mass deportations with little pretext.

Speaking to a crowd in Greenville, North Carolina, Trump on Monday vowed to “rescue every town across America that has been invaded and conquered,” by jailing and deporting immigrants, utilizing an arcane 200-year-old law.

“I will invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 18– no, of 1798,” said Trump, first mixing up his dates. “Think of that, 1798. That’s when we had real politicians that said, ‘We are not gonna play games.’ We have to go back to 1798.”

Believe it or not, this is not the first time he has made such a ridiculous claim.

Over the past month, Trump has regularly suggested sending America back more than two centuries in order to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Speaking on October 11 in Aurora, Colorado, he suggested he’d bring back the law to “target and dismantle every migrant criminal network operating on American soil.” He also spread misinformation about “migrant crime” in the area and nationwide, and called his plan to target suspected gang members “Operation Aurora.”

The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 is one part of four laws put in place by President John Adams as part of the “Alien and Sedition Acts” meant to protect against French invasion. These laws allowed the government to increase citizenship requirements, crack down on disloyalty, and deport noncitizens en masse. The law was meant to protect the United States only during “a declared war between the United States and any foreign nation or government,” or if a foreign nation had threatened war. Notably, it was used by President Franklin Roosevelt to detain thousands of people of Japanese descent, including U.S. citizens, in internment camps during World War II.

It’s unclear under exactly what pretext Trump would use the law. Would he make the case that MS-13 or the Tren de Aragua gang is a foreign nation? Or would he settle for the GOP’s language of declaring war on Mexico?

As Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel in the Brennan Center’s Liberty and National Security Program, told Axios, “The rhetorical framing of migration as an invasion is not only something that turns up the temperature in the political landscape, but it’s also something that is meant to conflate legal and rhetorical concepts.”

Even if he has no real plan to use a 200-year-old law in an authoritarian crackdown, as we’ve seen in Springfield, Ohio, this type of language can result in vigilante violence against everyday people.

Donald Trump’s weekend work trip to a closed McDonald’s franchise was intended to help him connect with working-class voters—but regulars and staff members alike at the burger chain weren’t so impressed.

Reviewers on Yelp torched the former president’s performance, even though the Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania, location where Trump “worked” had actually closed for the photo-op.

“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves,” one reviewer, “Karen S,” wrote on the review site. “Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? … 0 stars. Do not recommend.”

Another critic, “Christopher F,” complained that a “creepy old man” working the drive-through window “offered to pay me some hush money to keep this story quiet.”

But Trump’s performance drew some legitimate ire from workers at the international restaurant.

A cashier at a McDonald’s location in Astoria, Queens, felt that the campaign stop minimized the work of her and her colleagues, and managers were wholly unimpressed by Trump’s workplace etiquette. One Flatbush, Brooklyn, area manager shook her head at a clip of Trump playfully throwing salt over his left shoulder to ward off bad luck.

“You don’t throw salt like that,” Kishia, who asked that her last name not be used since she was on the clock, told The New York Times. “Somebody could have been behind him, you know?”

But perhaps most egregious was Trump’s french fry form.

While surveying damage from Hurricane Helene in Swannanoa, North Carolina, on Monday, Trump was awarded one of McDonald’s honors—a “french fry certification” pin—for playing make believe behind the fryer. The gift came from North Carolina Representative Chuck Edwards, who said that he owned several locations of the fast food purveyor.

“The box is, like, backwards,” New York McDonald’s employee David Ye told the Times, referring to the fry carton. “He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.”